Monday, November 9, 2009

Angus Reid : Labour and SNP both up

The second in the new series of Angus Reid polls for PoliticalBetting.com shows very little change in its Scottish subsample, with Labour slightly extending its lead over the SNP from three to five points. Here are the full figures -

Labour 32% (+3)
SNP 27% (+1)
Conservatives 20% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-5)
Others 8% (-1)


These figures emerge at the same time as a TNS-BMRB poll showing commanding leads for the SNP of eight points on both the constituency and list votes for Holyrood - a story that the Herald surreally (not to say brazenly) manages to report as "Salmond blow as voters shun SNP"!

6 comments:

Aye We Can ! said...

surely a 14% Labour lead over the SNP in Westminster voting intention is something of "a blow"? it certinly would be if it came true.

James Kelly said...

Alan, there are three voting intention figures in that poll, all of them equally important, and two of them have the SNP ahead by no less than eight points. Yes, the gap between Westminster and Holyrood voting intentions is startling, but I stand by what I said - the Herald's reporting of this is bizarre. How many times recently have the SNP been that far ahead on the list vote? Don't you think that's worthy of just as much note as Labour's lead for Westminster?

Anonymous said...

I agree with you James, the headline was to say the least misleading. I had thought the Holyrood vote had gone off the cliff when I saw the headline.

Marcia

tris said...

Yeah, that's reporting more worthy of teh Hootsman. There are pushing ahead in two polls out of three and it's a blow???? Not something I understood.

In any case, good or bad, I have a healthy suspicion of polls.

Aye We Can ! said...

i aint out to defend the herald, but some westminster polls only a few month back had the SNP almost neck with labour - its here there has been quite a change. And the real westminster poll is barely six months away, with a westminster by-election on thursday. It's voting intention for a far off holyrood election - and one which will be fought in quite markedly changed circumstanes - that for the moment is a bit of an academic question.

Given the monumental mess labour has made of things - economic recession, war and more - it to me depressing that they are apparently 14% ahead westminster wise, but surely journalistically of interest?...and politically daft for nationalists to gloss over

James Kelly said...

Alan, it would be literally impossible for us to gloss over it, because the Herald has already decided that's the only thing journalistically of interest in this poll. All we can do is point out the truth, which is that it's in reality a mere one-third of the story. And as I pointed out earlier, the figures for the list vote are just as unusual as the figures for Westminster - and thus surely a matter of some journalistic interest?

On the issue of what is likely to happen at the general election, I'll be interested to see whether there's such a huge gap between Westminster and Holyrood voting intentions in future YouGov polls, for instance. It's very unusual for there to be such a huge chasm and it could be that this poll is an outlier. If the next couple of polls show the same pattern then, yes, the SNP may be back to having a specific "Westminster problem", but it would be hugely premature to jump to that conclusion on the basis of a single poll.

Final thought - the Holyrood election is hardly "far off" or "academic", even when compared to the general election. The latter is six months away, the former eighteen months away. Both are (or certainly should be) firmly in the SNP's sights right now.