Friday, June 5, 2009

SNP surge further ahead in YouGov sub-sample

For the fifth time in a row, a YouGov sub-sample has shown an SNP lead in Westminster voting intention. As with the last one, the findings can be taken with a rare degree of seriousness, given that the unweighted Scottish sample size is an unusually healthy 410. Here are the full figures -

SNP 33% (+4)
Labour 25% (-1)
Conservatives 18% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 16% (+2)
Others 8% (-7)

The European Parliament voting intention figures are as follows -

SNP 31% (+2)
Labour 22% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 17% (+4)
Conservatives 14% (+1)
Others 16% (-4)

Is it 'game over' for Scottish Labour on Sunday evening, then? Well, I think I'll try to learn from AM2's folly in using those words and say it's still too early to judge. One cautionary note is that Labour have won a by-election in Glasgow this evening fairly comfortably (nominally it was in fact a gain from the SNP under the vagaries of the electoral system). However, the odds now look heavily in favour of the SNP at least winning the Scottish popular vote for the first time in a European election.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Populus : SNP extend lead

Just for once, we haven't had the normal interminable wait for the detailed figures from the recent Populus poll, carried out last Wednesday and Thursday. The Scottish sub-sample for Westminster shows the following -

SNP 42% (+2)
Labour 29% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 11% (+1)
Conservatives 8% (-12)
Others 11% (+9)

The European Parliament voting intention figures are once again pointing to a potential breakthrough by the Greens -

SNP 36%
Labour 25%
Greens 11%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Conservatives 8%
BNP 5%

One very encouraging point to emerge from recent UK-wide polls (encouraging from my perspective, I mean!) has been the strong support shown for a switch to proportional representation for Westminster elections. In this Populus poll, 56% of respondents say that PR would improve the way Britain's political system works, with only 11% saying it would make it worse.

ComRes : Labour regain lead

Given that the pollster that in recent months has been the most unfavourable to the SNP (YouGov) has just shown them ahead for the fourth time in a row, it's somewhat ironic that the latest ComRes sub-sample shows Labour back in a comfortable lead, with the SNP slumping to just 23%. Here are the full figures -

Labour 32% (+13)
SNP 23% (-7)
Conservatives 12% (-14)
Greens 11% (+8)
Liberal Democrats 10% (-6)
Others 12% (+5)

On this occasion, however, I feel confident in saying that the YouGov sub-sample showing the SNP in a narrow lead can be taken more seriously, given that the sample size was literally ten times greater. One unmistakable trend this poll does confirm, however, is the march of the Greens and the other minor parties, undoubtedly assisted by the expenses scandal, and the exposure afforded by the European elections on Thursday.

Monday, June 1, 2009

YouGov : SNP maintain narrow lead

The Scottish sub-sample of the latest YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph shows all of the four main parties slipping slightly, with the minor parties gaining as a result. Here are the full figures -

SNP 29% (-1)
Labour 26% (-2)
Conservatives 17% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 14% (-2)
Others 15% (+9)

This is the fourth YouGov sub-sample in a row that has shown the SNP in the lead for Westminster - and just for once it can be taken reasonably seriously, given that the unweighted sample size is no less than 547! Of course, the rise of the 'others' is due to the unusual exposure they are receiving in the run-up to the European Parliament elections on Thursday. The Scottish breakdown for that election is as follows -

SNP 29%
Labour 24%
Liberal Democrats 13%
Conservatives 13%
Greens 7%
BNP 4%
SSP 1%
Jury Team 1%
Others 2%

By my reckoning, that would result in two seats for the SNP, two for Labour, one for the Tories and one for the Lib Dems. So a little disappointment for the SNP there - although personally I've always felt they were likely to fall short of the third seat. The most important thing is to claim victory in the popular vote for only the second time in history in any sort of national election.

The big tent just got even bigger

AM2 has revealed on Jeff's blog - apparently in all seriousness - that he took the questionnaire at the EU Profiler website, and that his political views came out as being closest to the SNP. I've actually taken that test myself (naturally I came out somewhere between the SNP and the Greens) so I know that it's not just a blunt instrument - it gives you the opportunity at the end to weight the relative importance you place on each question you've been asked. So, even in spite of the fact that AM2 would doubtless have given his unionism the maximum possible weighting, he turns out to be a Nat In Denial. Truly extraordinary.

A new slogan for the SNP - "delivering on AM2's priorities..."