Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Ipsos-Mori poll : SNP retain huge Holyrood lead

Thanks to Marcia on the previous thread for alerting me to the fact that Ipsos-Mori have now released their Holyrood voting intention figures. The party leaders' satisfaction ratings were published a few days ago at the same time as the independence referendum poll, and the slippage in Alex Salmond's figures did lead me to fear that there might be some kind of feed-through to voting intention (although of course he was still ahead of all his Scottish rivals, and light-years ahead of the Westminster leaders).

I needn't have worried.

Holyrood constituency vote :

SNP 45% (-4)
Labour 32% (+9)
Conservatives 12% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-4)
Others 5% (-)

Ipsos-Mori's own report suggests that these figure are good news for Johann Lamont, which in one sense is an understandable interpretation, given Labour's nine-point increase. But all that really does is illustrate just how mind-bogglingly awful the previous poll was for Labour, because they're now essentially back to where they started in the May 2011 landslide defeat.

One slight note of caution : these figures are based only on the respondents who say they are certain to vote. The SNP's lead is a more modest four points among all respondents who offered a voting intention. However, the latter is not used as the headline figure for a good reason - there tends to be a very strong correlation between the percentage who tell pollsters they are certain to vote, and the actual turnout in elections.

In case you're wondering, there are no figures for the regional list vote.

* * *

I tend to view the Twitter spat between Caron Lindsay and Rev Stu over a spoof 'Better Together' poster as a culture clash, rather than a question of right and wrong. Admittedly, I know only too well that photos can have an emotional power that words cannot match. Long-term readers of this blog will remember how incensed I was in 2009 when Kevin Baker used a photo of an elderly woman who had been practically beaten to a pulp, and accompanied it with a caption along the lines of "this is what James Kelly regards as mere bumps and bruises". But my complaint was that he had demonstrably used the power of the photo to distort the truth - by contrast Rev Stu's point is indisputably accurate, namely that being part of the United Kingdom ensures that Scottish servicemen and women will inevitably fight and die in British wars. The other, more important criticism that could have been levelled at Baker is that he was "appropriating" the suffering of the clearly identifiable woman in the photo, even though for all he knew she might have had no truck whatever with the point he was trying to make. Again, that doesn't really apply to what Rev Stu did, because the picture he used is in long-shot, and is therefore representative rather than specific and intrusive.

I suspect that if a photo like that had accompanied a sober article making much the same point as Rev Stu's, nobody would have batted an eyelid. And it goes without saying that if the photo had accompanied a piece glorifying war, and insisting that we "must go on" in order to ensure that the deaths "were not in vain", that would have been deemed absolutely fine, even though the bereaved families in the photo might not have shared the sentiment. The complaints in this case really just boil down to personal distaste for an edgy blogging style, rather than a legitimate objection to the point actually being made (which I imagine caused a degree of discomfort). Whether Rev Stu went too far is thus in the eye of the beholder, but I certainly feel strongly that we should never allow ourselves to be browbeaten into regarding the reality of war and its human cost as off-limits for normal, robust political debate - the notion that certain things are unsayable, and that certain platitudes are unchallengeable, is one of the factors that lead to pointless military and civilian deaths in the first place.

7 comments:

GrassyKnollington said...

Rev Stu is a real problem for the unionists and is consequently hated.

He fits their imagined "cybernat" profile perfectly despite the fact that he lives in England, is not a member of the SNP and cares not a jot what Alex Salmond thinks of him.

Caron Lindsay, Duncan Hothersall, and Willie Rennie's attempt to make him the ultimate "cybernat" kind of falls down when you consider these facts.

He's just someone who exposes their hypocrisy and slavish unionism. I thought his furious slap down of that little weasel Rennie was quite superb.

Anonymous said...

Caron Lindsay is Willie Rennie's pliant mouthpiece.

When she isn't slathering unquestioning adoration on him she's busy censoring and deleting comments that don't follow the Rennie and Clegg party line at Lib Dem Pravda.

A yellow tory through and through with more than a touch of the Thatcherite true believer zeal.

Hers is an almost pathalogical hatred of the SNP and Salmond and thus immune to reason or facts.

David said...

Mz Lindsay - Would be playground Boudicca and enforcer: Toom Tabardette.

RevStu said...

Missed this before. Rather chuffed at being described as "the ultimate cybernat".

:D

Longshanker said...

RevStu can use any image he likes.

If I remember rightly though, according to Duncan Hothersall, the particular image used by RevStu meant that the bodies in the coffin could be identified and named.

D Hothersall asked him to remove the image based on basic decency and compassion for the families and RevStu refused.

That puts the scenario in a different league.

RevStu is a self-aggrandising attention seeker and those who truly believe in independence should waken up to this ego driven narcissist.

Only a narcissist could ignore the pain and hurt of those soldiers' familie.

From my understanding, RevStu has a pathological problem with soldiers and the Royal British Legion anyway.

I'll leave it up to you to find out why.

His blog only uses independence as a front - as his diversion on Rangers shows - because no-one listens to him on videogames anymore.

More fool the people genuinely interested in independence for Scotland.

RevStu said...

Ah, my new stalker's here. Bless.

Longshanker said...

Interesting definition of stalker coming from a vindictive liar.

I can prove my accusation.

Can you prove yours?

Or will you keep playing the 'gutless' card?

I think we should be told!