Monday, February 6, 2017

Scotland will become independent, says 61% of public in explosive Panelbase poll

Panelbase have updated their datasets, thus solving the mystery of yesterday's tweet from Jason Allardyce suggesting that the public believe Scottish independence to be "inevitable".  That turns out to be a reference to the re-asking of a question that has been posed before (and with unchanged wording, thus making a direct comparison with the previous poll possible).

38% (+3) believe Scotland is likely to become independent within 5-10 years
16% (-2) believe Scotland is likely to become independent, but not for at least 10-15 years
7% (-1) believe Scotland is likely to become independent, but not for at least 20-30 years
27% (+1) do not believe Scotland is likely to become independent in the next few decades
13% (n/c) don't know

That means a total of 61% expect independence within the next few decades.  A clear majority (54%) selected one of the first two options, which in spite of the imprecise wording appears to imply that they expect independence within two decades at the absolute most.  And that's with the don't knows taken into account - if they're stripped out, more than 43% of the sample expect independence within just five or ten years.

As you'd imagine, Yes voters from the first indyref are most bullish about the likelihood of independence, but the total number of No voters who anticipate independence at some point over the next few decades (40%) is almost equal to the number of No voters who don't think it will happen at all (43%).  And intriguingly enough, as many as 49% of English-born voters expect independence, and only 36% don't.  However, the subsample of English voters is relatively small, so those figures should be treated with caution.

The other important piece of news from the updated datasets is the complete figures for Westminster voting intention, including the smaller parties...

SNP 47% (n/c)
Conservatives 27% (+3)
Labour 15% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 4% (-1)
Greens 3% (n/c)
UKIP 3% (-1)

Adding up the raw numbers gives the two main pro-independence parties an outright majority of the vote - just.  The SNP and Greens have approximately 50.3% between them.  Part of the explanation is that No voters from 2014 are significantly more likely than Yes voters to say they have less than an 80% chance of turning out for an election, or that they don't know which party they would vote for, and as a result end up being removed from the sample.  Nevertheless, a majority for the pro-independence parties is highly encouraging as we ponder the possibility (I've no idea of how strong a possibility it is) of a snap Holyrood election to win an outright mandate for independence if the Westminster Tories are stupid enough to attempt to block a referendum.

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48 comments:

  1. Ok, I'm sure I'm missing something, but those numbers add up to 101%.

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    Replies
    1. Sunshine on CrieffFebruary 6, 2017 at 8:27 PM

      It's because each individual party's figure is rounded up or down, the total can add up to 101 (or 99, or even 100!)

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 6, 2017 at 8:38 PM

      However you will still lose a referendum inspite of figures and calculations.
      The loyalist Unionist Scots are still predominant. The Nat sis need mass immigration into Scotland to rid Scotland of its indigenous people.

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    3. The poster above is a far-right racist UKIP sockpuppetFebruary 6, 2017 at 8:44 PM

      The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

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    4. Loving your work. Always worth reminding people of some of the drone's greatest hits.

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    5. Glasgow Working Class 2February 6, 2017 at 9:07 PM

      Same old expected repetitive comment from a loser. The Union will continue as normal and the fascists confined to the dustbin of history.

      Delete
    6. Glasgow Working Class 2February 6, 2017 at 9:58 PM

      Same old expected repetitive comment from a loser. The Union will continue as normal and the fascists confined to the dustbin of history.

      Delete
    7. Glasgow Working Class 2February 6, 2017 at 9:59 PM

      Same old expected repetitive comment from a loser. The Union will continue as normal and the fascists confined to the dustbin of history.

      Delete
    8. Glasgow Working Class 2February 6, 2017 at 10:00 PM

      Same old expected repetitive comment from a loser. The Union will continue as normal and the fascists confined to the dustbin of history.

      Delete
    9. Glasgow Working Class 2February 6, 2017 at 10:23 PM

      Seems the Jock Nat sis have an echo chamber. Sad losers.

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    10. Absolute bloody state of this.

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    11. 'Glasgow Working Class 2'...you're just weird, mate :-D Entertaining though, in a strangely retarded way.

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    12. Dear GWC2, you seem terribly pent up. Please crack one off the wrist before this obsession you have with James progresses to the stalking stage (I'm assuming you've already been through his bins). Let us know how you get on.

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    13. Hiya GWC2
      Achtung (!) and all that Nazi zeitgeist stuff:)


      Still sucking on pig's trotters with a post-prandial glass of "Buckfast" whilst getting your cavalry boots shined by your favourite Porridge Wog?

      You wascal, you!

      Sincere apologies, old chap, to be the bearer of bad news from here amongst the spearchuckers to the old home front of Mainwaring and the other solid chaps, but things have gone rather tits up here, old boy, in old Blighty dominated South Africa and India (I got the latter bit of news from our old chum, Aldo, who has been ordered to chuck it in faced with the toga-toting, brownie biscuit called Gandhi and his masses of ungrateful semi-niggers).

      Meantime, here in the Transvaal, the fcuking Boer b'stards have sold us out and we are about to be over-run by Shaka Zulu's rampaging hordes of golliwogs.

      Trust the bloody Paddies are getting sorted out by you lot over bayonet led discussions.

      The Kiwis proving to be treacherous, but the Ozzies are hanging in there on behalf of dear old Blighty (splendid fellow their PM in name. Woof Harrison, I think. Keeping Blighty's home fires burning amidst the Abos and Porridge Wogs).

      Down to be last bullet, old son. Regards to the chaps and chapettes at 77 Brigade. Dashed difficult job you lot have to cope with. Too damn subtle for me as I prefer the good old fashioned steel approach to the uppity help).

      Golly gosh, Zulu stabbing spear incoming. Am to be Toodleoothenoo'd rapid as our old regimental factotum would have decried...half pint of Shandy in the Mess for you on me...

      Delete
  2. Thanks once again for a great article, and analysis James. Have shared. If Scotland is not independent before england exiting the EU, and dragging us with them into the sewer, the fascist unionists north and south of the border will make sure to asset strip Scotland even more than they are attempting to do now and have been for 100s of years.

    What sort of country would that leave for future generations I wonder. It has become obvious that the unionists hold Scotland, and the people of Scotland in contempt, and they will do anything to keep their gravy train running smoothly all the way to londun.

    Let's see how this all pans out, with many no voters seriously considering just what sort of country brexshit will leave them and their kids and grandkids with.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 6, 2017 at 10:20 PM

      The gravy train is in Scotland 129 MSP'S. We only required around 60 MPs. The EU has over 750 MEPs that were not required. The pubkic service requires workers not windbags fleecing the taxpayers.

      Delete
    2. Poodle Theresa and her Kipper TrumpetsFebruary 6, 2017 at 11:07 PM

      Farage in expenses storm as #UKIP MEPs pocket £531,000

      RT @UKuncut: The new expenses scandal. Nigel Farage, Paul Nuttall and six other Ukip MEPs are under investigation.

      Delete
    3. Hello, Glasgow Working Class I am the Taiwanese lady you have made pregnant.

      I go to doctors, get abortion.

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2February 7, 2017 at 12:09 AM

      I prefer Taiwanese boys in the crossdressing scene

      Delete
  3. great analysis (as usual) James.

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  4. I have it on good authority that Glasgow Working Class 2 wanked a Doberman off and drank its canine cumjuice.

    Afterwards he killed it with a brick and fucked its eyesockets.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 7, 2017 at 12:11 AM

      100%

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 7, 2017 at 12:13 AM

      You seem a violent perverted person that Tai Wan dugs have to avoid. An abortion in your case survived.

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    3. Absolute bloody state of this.

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    4. Not to mention his participation in puppy orgies.

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  5. James, you wrote: "if the Westminster Tories are stupid enough to attempt to block a referendum."

    If? That lot are stupid enough to try anything.

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    Replies
    1. And Corbyn's Abstinence Party are spineless enough to let them.

      Delete
  6. Poodle Theresa and her Kipper TrumpetsFebruary 7, 2017 at 7:20 AM

    Wings Over Scotland ‏@WingsScotland · 22h

    Daisley's first Mail column explains how the paper speaks for the voiceless downtrodden. No, really.

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    Replies
    1. Let's not forget STV had that man working for him for years.

      STV is mince.

      Delete
  7. Dugdale's Suicide SquadFebruary 7, 2017 at 8:23 AM

    Steven Anderson ‏@St_Anderson38 14m

    I see @kezdugdale is saying Scotland is 'stronger' with frequent Tory governments. No wonder they're now at 15%

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  8. Let's be quite clear that if it wasn't for the EU referendum result,we probably wouldn't be having these conversations at present.
    However,if what has happened doesn't inform Scots that they have no say in major decisions taken by the UK union,then nothing will.
    Should the EU offer Scotland an attractive transitional package to remain within the European union until such times as our state infrastructure is fully in place,then I think many Scots would be tempted to give Westminster the finger.
    If not now,then when?

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  9. If Scotland doesn't become independent then, by whatever means that become available, the younger will leave and it will be left with the Jill Stevensons, the Tories, the old and the last bewildered Slabbers.

    ReplyDelete
  10. These guys:

    16% (-2) believe Scotland is likely to become independent, but not for at least 10-15 years
    7% (-1) believe Scotland is likely to become independent, but not for at least 20-30 years

    Have these "long term, Scotland will be independent" people ever seen the Scottish Social Attitudes survey "Moreno" question results, where the number of people who consider themselves Scottish not British is falling year on year? In 20-30 years, Scot-not-Brit will have dropped a lot.

    I guess the moral of the story (and maybe this comment) is, people don't always know what they're talking about.

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    Replies
    1. Could you provide me with a link?

      For I find it a tad difficult to believe.

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    2. Clarification.

      Sorry,it was this line that I wanted to query:

      "..where the number of people who consider themselves Scottish not British is falling year on year?"

      Is that actually a Scottish statistic?

      Perhaps you could provide a source, and year on year figures?

      Thanks.

      Delete
    3. http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/moreno-national-identity-5#table

      Delete
  11. Poodle Theresa the TrumpetteFebruary 7, 2017 at 1:11 PM

    Sanjeev Kohli ‏@govindajeggy 2h

    So Kanye is disowning Trump. Good work Kanye. You very nearly got into bed with an attention-seeking sociopathic imbecile.

    ReplyDelete
  12. So 46% say they're going to vote for independence but only 38% think Yes will win? That's a statistic that requires drilling.

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    Replies
    1. Not really. First of all, it's not a meaningful comparison. The 46% is with Don't Knows excluded, the 38% isn't. Secondly, not everyone answering the question will be assuming an indyref within the next few years.

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    2. Thanks James.I'm still a bit troubled by the memory of all the "I'm voting Yes but we'll never win it" folks during the first Indyref,though.

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  13. Quite remarkable really after nearly ten years in power, the SNP are still hugely popular with the Scottish electorate. Amazing achievement, but we need to keep up the good work and delivering, especially in local areas.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 7, 2017 at 8:43 PM

      Popular for the cuts and refusing to raise tax and unfreeze the council tax. Good old Tory policies.

      Delete
  14. Glasgow Working Class 2February 7, 2017 at 9:31 PM

    I really have to apologise to the readers of SCOT goes POP and the host, my Scottish boyfriend left me for an Asian lady and I have been having trouble coming to terms with it. His young partner is now expecting his first child and I realise I have been lashing out at anyone and anything Scottish.
    The main reason we broke up was because he was uncomfortable with the power dynamics in our relationship.
    We used to play dressups he would play the part of John Brown and I would dress up as Queen Victoria, he was sensational as the big rugged Scottish servant and if I may say so I was excellent as Queen Victoria, ( even though I am 2 inches taller than she was, I wouldnt wear any heels to try to keep the magic)

    regards

    Nigel

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  15. Glasgow Working Class 2February 7, 2017 at 9:51 PM

    Oh dear James you should send knickerless the cumjuice comment. She will be impressed no doubt by her devout followers. I will stick tae the NAW vote.

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    Replies
    1. Hi GWC2. How are you able to type so lucidly without opposable thumbs and a keypad drizzled with Doberman cumjuice?

      Rgds
      Sgt Pepper

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 8, 2017 at 12:02 AM

      Are you attempting to turn this into a porn channel! I do like Eastern European salted popcorn and a mivvie.

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    3. State of this.

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