Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Massive boost for the SNP as Ipsos-Mori phone poll gives them whopping 18% lead

Who can now believe that we used to dread the arrival of Ipsos-Mori's quarterly "Hi, I'm John MacKay" poll for STV?  Recently, it's often been our salvation.  The new one confirms the message from other firms that the SNP are several points down on their vote share from 2015, but crucially it differs from earlier polls in suggesting that the unionist vote is split down the middle, leaving the SNP with an enormous lead.  In a first-past-the-post election, what matters most is not the leading party's vote share, but the size of the gap between that party and its nearest challenger.  It's suddenly no longer even clear who that challenger will be.

Scottish voting intentions for Westminster (Ipsos-Mori) :

SNP 43%
Labour 25%
Conservatives 25%
Liberal Democrats 5%
Greens 1%
UKIP 1%

And now for the bad news, or at least the slightly less good news.  Although the polls in general slightly underestimated the SNP in the run-up to the 2015 election, Ipsos-Mori were very much an exception - two of their three polls put the SNP on 52%, and the final one gave the SNP 54% and Labour just 20%.  The actual result was SNP 50%, Labour 24%.  Because Ipsos-Mori don't weight by past vote, there's no guarantee that any skew towards the SNP has been resolved.  So this poll does not necessarily remove the danger (suggested by SurveyMonkey's findings) that the SNP may slip to 40% or below. 

Nevertheless, an 18% lead gives the SNP an enviable buffer against any polling error, and as it happens the final Ipsos-Mori poll of the 2015 campaign actually overestimated the Tories as well. 
So who will win the battle for second place in the popular vote?  Labour catching up with the Tories is not a bolt from the blue - although the SurveyMonkey poll suggested the Tory vote was holding up, Labour were firmly within striking distance.  Recent subsamples have told a similar story - Labour have typically been in the 20s where previously they were in the teens.  The balance of evidence is that the Tories still have the advantage, but it does appear that one crucial aspect of Ruth Davidson's legend is now under genuine threat.  Gosh, wouldn't that be a tragedy?

47 comments:

  1. I had no idea that 56% of the Scottish population were requiring help with their mental health.

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    1. Interesting selective stat.

      You brushing your dentures after blowing your inner felt?

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    2. 56% of the Scottish people are not Scottish in the eyes of the Fascist Nat sis are they old fash muppet? We Unionists are still around auld yin are not going away as yer pal Adams would say.

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    3. The poster above is a far-right racist tory sockpuppetMay 31, 2017 at 9:48 PM

      The troll 'GWC2' calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

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    4. The vigilance of the Jock fascists on this blog has tae be commended however you are still a bunch of Nat si losers and we Unionists are still monitoring your hate claptrap against the Unionist community. You Nat si sell out Scotland Merkel crawlers will never prevail up yer kilts fash.

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    5. Racist Brit Nat idiot.. "Jock" fuckwit..

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    6. ignorance is a tory trait sarcasm is the lowest form of wit take your pick what catagory you wish to reside ,
      scotland mentalhealth is fine thank you . your westminster lot behave like a lunatic asylum out dated and so wearing .

      Delete
  2. Like the shock YouGov poll in this morning's Times, this would also result in 50 SNP seats. Ladbrokes prices still suspended, and SNP up a seat on the spread betting markets.

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  3. Crucially, the fieldwork overlaps the Survey Monkey poll and some of it is newer. So there is no evidence for a further slide in the SNP vote for now.

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  4. Do opinion polls influence public voting intentions?

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    1. It's argued the the one poll the weekend before Indy Ref 2014 which showed a Yes lead galvanised the No Voters to come out and vote.

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    2. Has there been any studies done?

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    3. Have there? Would be most enlightening. Anyone got info? Thank you.

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    4. Yes the study 'pretty fkn obvious' was used...

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    5. Well, this method is regularly used in tv shows like IDOL where they will place the one they want in the danger zone but the one they don't want they will announce " hasn't been close to elimination" all year, then boom, no one bothers to vote for b but all the a fans make sure to save them. Same on radio " best" contacts. They will say " Take This and That is flushing One Erection down the old toilet bowl with only 5 Minutes left to vote! Then: here are the winners: new erection! How nsync near backstreet boys in huge fan vote. Another is to focus on what a person or vote will actually mean: indy ref! While ignoring actual things for another: cameron 2015/ Brexit vote...Brexit: will NHS REALLY get 250 kazillion $?

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    6. Yes the study 'pretty fkn obvious' was used...

      It's obvious that the poll with Yes in the lead would have some effect on the outcome, but it's not at all clear which side benefited. So a study would indeed be interesting.

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  5. Now you know Ruth is going to get 12 or 13 seats. I will be shocked if she gets anything less. How else will she secure her anointment as First Minister? Just you stop printing there liar polls.

    13 seats or Ruthie should resign.

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    Replies
    1. the tories actually said they would get 19 seats in scotland

      they should be reminded of this constantly after the election

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    2. Really? Got a link?

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  6. Fieldwork before snp manifesto launch....hopefully underestimates the snp vote, got a feeling labour are winning votes back off tories

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  7. They overestimated the SNP in 2016 as well, however I think that may have been due to a last minute slip that the other polls with newer fieldwork picked up on.

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  8. Left leaning or at least moderate unionists now have an alternative it would seem in Corbyn's Labour party to the Torykip/Davidson party.

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  9. "it does appear that one crucial aspect of Ruth Davidson's legend is now under genuine threat."
    You would not mean the one in her own lunchtime would you. Mixing ice cream cones and real ale - not a good idea.

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  10. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  11. Keep an eye on the betting markets. Moves are afoot. Eg. Lab significant shortening in Edinburgh South and East Lothian, whereas Con lengthening in East Lothian (SNP stable in both markets). There will be other movers, but not had time to go through all 56 seats.

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  12. The horrid daily express has a poll from a company i think i don't know that suggest that SNP will lose 10 seats and labour 100 seats more than yougov recent prediction it also has tories on 374 roughly which would leave then very comfortable. Have you saw the express(English Edition i looked at), headline today james?

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  13. And still I have yet to meet anyone that has been asked to do one of these polls

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    Replies
    1. People who do them comment on here quite a lot.

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    2. Asked to do one? You join a polling company and take the polls when they come up. Unless it's cold telephone or doorstep polling which is way less common. I've had a telephone poll call in the past.

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  14. James, it is interesting that uniform swing with those numbers would come out very close to the Ashcroft prediction. Yes, I share your skepticism on uniform swing, but did smile at that result.

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  15. TNS/KANTAR poll out. SNP at 47, Labour in second at 23, and Tories well back at 16. Scottish subsample but certainly moving in the right direction.http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/sites/tns-bmrb/files/KPUK%20-%20final%20tables%20-%2031.5.2017.pdf

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  16. YouGov just updated their prediction model. Tories 41 Labour 38. It has also increased its predicted SNP seats from 50 to 51.https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

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  17. Vote Labour and get rid of the Tartan and Blue Tories. There is no chance of Labour doing a deal with the Nat sis as Corbyn has described them as not being progressive.

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    Replies
    1. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandMay 31, 2017 at 9:46 PM

      even for a clueless tory sockpuppet you're shit at this

      Delete
    2. Luckily Kezia doesn't support trotsky Corbyn you Nat sis are stuffed GSTQ

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    3. Kezia thinks Trotsky got a an ice pick through his head and like Sturgeon is thankfull for this while they contemplate their future.

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    4. Kezia the thinking mans totti

      Delete
    5. Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
      Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
      Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
      It's easy.
      Nothing you can make that can't be made.
      No one you can save that can't be saved.
      Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love.
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      Nothing you can know that isn't known.
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      It's easy.
      All you need is love (All together, now!)
      All you need is love (Everybody!)
      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete
    6. Not sure Kez is really into the thinking Man.....

      Delete
  18. alexmassie‏ @alexmassie 4h

    alexmassie Retweeted BBC News (UK)

    This is not how a credible Prime Minister behaves, looks, or speaks.

    ReplyDelete
  19. New YouGov subsample SNP: 42 Con: 28 Lab: 20 Lib: 4 Otr: 6

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    Replies
    1. And the Tories' UK lead down to 3 points. Holy shit

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    2. Yesterday was the end of May.

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  20. This snap election could be greatest political folly of modern times.

    What a kick in the teeth for the Blairites as well...There is not enough popcorn for all this joy.

    Auld Effie's blog was utterly bombarded last few weeks with this Tory 'revival' , Aldo was clicking his wee heels like a modern day Dorothy and his love for all things blue.

    It's been dead since late last week since May came out of the shadows to show her real face...they are all now in hiding...Tories and Blairites suffering collectively....ooohh happy days.

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    Replies
    1. Yep. By his standards, even the troll's gone to ground.

      Delete