Sunday, May 14, 2017

Subsample average fails to find any post-locals momentum for the Scottish Tories

Well, the "remarkable" poll in the Sunday Times did turn out to be an anti-climax, not for either of the reasons I speculated last night, but simply because it was a poll that had already been published and that we already knew about!  It was a GB-wide Ashcroft poll, but the Sunday Times are reading huge significance into the results of the Scottish subsample, because "far more" Scottish respondents were interviewed than for a standard full-scale Scottish poll.  That gives the entirely misleading impression that the results are more accurate than a full-scale Scottish poll, whereas in fact a properly weighted poll of 1000 people should be more accurate than an unweighted subsample of 3,500.  In any case, even a weighted poll of 3,500 wouldn't be dramatically more accurate than a poll of 1000.

Even if you take them seriously, the Ashcroft numbers are already a couple of weeks out of date (they precede the local elections) and don't show anything radically different from what we've seen in the campaign so far.  The SNP's lead is 11% - exactly the same as in the full-scale Panelbase poll.

So we still await the first Scottish poll since the local elections, and in the meantime all we can do is look at an average of the very small number of Scottish subsamples conducted over the last seven days, which suggests there hasn't been any further momentum for the Tories.

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

SNP 42.8% (-2.2)
Conservatives 30.3% (-1.2)
Labour 15.0% (-0.8)
Liberal Democrats 7.5% (+2.7)

(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)

54 comments:

  1. Surprising that the Scottish Greens are not listed.

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    Replies
    1. Why? They're only standing in three constituencies.

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    2. Sitting out the election to help their pals. Scotland doesn't have a green party, it has an SNP mini me.

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    3. Taking their potential votes, outwith the three constituencies they are standing in, may increase the pro independence vote. Unless their numbers are incredibly small, they can't be ignored. One would expect them to vote SNP, Labour / Liberal and Conservative in that order.

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  2. Nice to see that we are in the final of the Paris 7s. Beat South Africa, Fiji and England to get there. Not a mention on the EBC or in any of the quisling media.

    Can't have Scotland being winners now can we?

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    Replies
    1. Do you view the Scottish Unionist parties as quislings? Funny how they can be quislings if they're not in any kind of government.

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    2. Obviously I don't condone the use of extreme language like "quisling", but on a strictly factual basis you're wrong - the Scotland Office is manned by members of a Scottish Unionist party (the Tories).

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    3. Quisling is accociated with those who supported Hitler and the Nazis. Mainly insular and narrow minded. The Jock Nat sis do have some commonality inasmuch as they are narrow minded and anti English.

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    4. The poster above is a far-right racist tory sockpuppetMay 14, 2017 at 10:24 PM

      The troll 'GWC2' calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

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    5. The term quisling has nothing to do with being in government. It simply means any person who collaborates with an enemy occupying force. Of course, James is correct about the Scotland Office.

      Delete
  3. In other Ruth the Rape news. She's managed to take a quote from Alex Salmond, remove most of the words and claim that he talked of 1979-2014 as being a generation.

    Which is odd as I was listening to that very interview when he first said it and those were not his words.

    The FM (at that time) said that we'd had a referendum in 1979 and another in 1997 and that these events tended to be, "generational". So another in 2014 wasn't out of the ordinary for voters to cope with.

    She really is a disgusting, revolting bigoted, racist piece of scum. If we were not a colony then a true Scottish media would expose her for all the World to see. But they won't.

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    Replies
    1. Indeed - if only everyone other than Scottish nationalists could see the reality. Which is that a) the Scottish media is controlled by English colonialists, b) the Scottish LibDem, Labour and Conservative parties are branch offices in an English-controlled colonial structure, c) all politicians who oppose Scottish independence are racist, and d) England should keep giving defence contracts to Scotland after Scotland becomes independent, because anything else would be racist. What's this foam coming out of my mouth?

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    2. As a matter of interest, John, would you condemn Ruth Davidson for deliberately misquoting Alex Salmond on the "generational" point? Because Anon is undoubtedly right about that - I saw the original interview too.

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    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    4. Just picking you up on a few things you said there, John:

      "a) the Scottish media is controlled by English colonialists"
      This should read:
      "a) the Scottish media is dominated by Union supporting publications"

      "b) the Scottish LibDem, Labour and Conservative parties are branch offices in an English-controlled colonial structure"
      This should read:
      "b) the Scottish LibDem, Labour and Conservative parties are branch offices of Westminster-controlled parties"

      "c) all politicians who oppose Scottish independence are racist"
      This should read:
      "c) politicians who oppose Scottish independence are unconvinced for various reasons"

      "d) England should keep giving defence contracts to Scotland after Scotland becomes independent, because anything else would be racist."
      This should read:
      "d) The UK Government should award defence contracts to the most cost effective bidders, because this is right and proper."

      Unlabelled) "What's this foam coming out of my mouth?"
      Answer: Slevvers

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    5. Rape Clause Ruth and her repulsive bigot toriesMay 14, 2017 at 8:05 PM

      Tory Councillor Nick Harrington who was sacked last night following racist comments. #nothisfirsttime

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    6. What was the actual comment that was deemed racist?

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    7. The poster above is a far-right racist tory sockpuppetMay 14, 2017 at 8:55 PM

      The troll 'GWC2' calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

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    8. A lot of Tories are ruled by their emotions. Councillor Harrington is a good example. He thinks of Irish people and he just can't help it, the red mist comes down.

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    9. That Alex Salmond interview is constantly being misquoted. I watched at the time and have watched it in its entirety several times since. What is claimed he said is simply not what he said. A phrase here or there is cheery-picked and its meaning completely changed. But people who misrepresent what he said are trying to point score not tell the truth.

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    10. A phrase here or there is cheery-picked and its meaning completely changed. But people who misrepresent what he said are trying to point score not tell the truth.

      'Genetically programmed' waves to you through the windows of your glass house.

      Delete
  4. For those who wish to know.
    The margin of error in a sample = 1.0 divided by the square root of the number of items in the sample. 1000 sample, MoE = 3.16%, 3500 sample, MoE = 1.69% assuming samples are analysed in the same way

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  5. Wow, what a frightened wee country, what frightened wee people.

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    Replies
    1. STRONG AND STABLE!!

      THOSE FOREIGNERS SCARE ME!

      VOTE UKIPTORY!!

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  6. BunnyFunster. Whit a knob ye are. You give defense contracts to people you trust and that should be at home. The Nat sis could not be trusted as they hate the English. They would bubble the technical datails to their German pals. Up yer kilt traitor.

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    Replies
    1. The poster above is a far-right racist tory sockpuppetMay 14, 2017 at 8:55 PM

      The troll 'GWC2' calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

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    2. Vindication for the Union Nat si EU bum bhoy.

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    3. Allow me to interpret the threads for people who don't speak shite:

      John: "Scots are racists"
      GWC2: "Scots urnae racists"
      GWC2: "Unless they're independent, then they ur"
      GWC2: "Naw wait that's no what a meant"
      GWC2: "Hing oan, aye it is"
      GWC2: "Fack, A'm a racist"
      Everyone Else: "Aye, we ken"

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    4. Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
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      It's easy.
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      Nothing you can know that isn't known.
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      Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love (All together, now!)
      All you need is love (Everybody!)
      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete
  7. 73% are going to share their vote between the two Scottish Tory parties and people are dying on the Scottish Streets with no shelter to sustain them.
    No mention in Parliament and no intention of a strategy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The poster above is a far-right racist tory sockpuppetMay 14, 2017 at 10:22 PM

      The troll 'GWC2' calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    2. Whatever Nat si. Ruth is going to be First Minister after June and there's nothing you fash can do about it. Cannae wait to see you cry into yer kilts.

      Delete
    3. Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
      Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
      Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
      It's easy.
      Nothing you can make that can't be made.
      No one you can save that can't be saved.
      Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love, love.
      Love is all you need.
      Nothing you can know that isn't known.
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      Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love (All together, now!)
      All you need is love (Everybody!)
      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete
    4. You twit, the coming election has nothing to do with who is First Minister. Lord, could you try not to be such a bore.

      Delete
    5. Knickerless to demand a seat at the Brexit negotaitions table if the Nat sis win the most seats at the British Gen Election although it is nothing to do with her and the idiot does not want Brexit.

      Delete
    6. Damn it! Damn it all tae Hell! I thought we'd done it. I thought we'd love-bombed the shit outta him, finally turned hate to hugs. But, no. I take comfort in the fact that there was always hope - From the outset, from when I first realised that he can't spell Nazi properly, I thought "there's hope". Just not this time *shakes head*, God damn it. Let's not give up though. Let's love the arse off him until he can hate no more. Let's explode our collective love-missile deep within him, and and blow his Kipping mind with caring. Let's make him our "love-bitch" project, folks. I love you to Hell and back, man *arms outstretched* C'mere ya wee rascal....

      Delete
  8. Knickerless Kim Jung Eck and the Nat si elites have reduced education attainment to a level less than the Victorians. A policy to keep the masses docile while blaming the English. The Dustbin is waiting for them. Wake up Jocks throw the Buckfast away and get rid off this scum bunch of con merchants.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sounds pervy innatt.

      Delete
    2. Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
      Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
      Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
      It's easy.
      Nothing you can make that can't be made.
      No one you can save that can't be saved.
      Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love, love.
      Love is all you need.
      Nothing you can know that isn't known.
      Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
      Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love (All together, now!)
      All you need is love (Everybody!)
      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete
  9. I'm love-bombing the shit outta GWC2. If this doesn't help him, nothing will....

    Love, Love, Love.
    Love, Love, Love.
    Love, Love, Love.
    There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
    Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
    Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
    It's easy.
    Nothing you can make that can't be made.
    No one you can save that can't be saved.
    Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
    It's easy.
    All you need is love.
    All you need is love.
    All you need is love, love.
    Love is all you need.
    Nothing you can know that isn't known.
    Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
    Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
    It's easy.
    All you need is love (All together, now!)
    All you need is love (Everybody!)
    All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It worked the goat's getting it tonight.

      Delete
    2. Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
      Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
      Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
      It's easy.
      Nothing you can make that can't be made.
      No one you can save that can't be saved.
      Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love, love.
      Love is all you need.
      Nothing you can know that isn't known.
      Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
      Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love (All together, now!)
      All you need is love (Everybody!)
      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete
  10. Survation have finally realeased the results of the Edinburgh South constituency poll:

    SNP 30 (-4)
    CON 20 (+3)
    LAB 40 (+1)
    LD 3 (-1)
    GRN 7 (+3)

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Final-Edinburgh-South-Tables-5c3d0h-030417JSCH-sba.pdf

    The only issue here is that they names Neil Hay as the SNP candidate - which has likely held the SNP vote share down a few %. There's also a high Green score but it will likely split evenly between SNP and Labour here.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It also found support for independence at 38.5 - suggesting yes is up 3.5% here from 2014.

      Delete
    2. Looking at it again I see there has been no weighting by referendum results, yes is 6% over represented and 2016 remain by 4%, making the whole thing a bit dubious.

      Delete
  11. That the Tories poll over 30% in Scotland is remarkable in itself. Add in a shy Tory factor, as is often the case, and who knows what can happen.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes Aldo, the shy factor could actually be 70%, thus the tory vote could be 100%.

      Delete
    2. If you add the Nat si Tartan Tory vote to the Blue Tory then it could be historically remarkable. The working and underclass wiped out by the new elite. ... And the dispossessed are dying on our streets and you Nat sis play your game of petty nationalism. You really are scumbags and you know it.

      Delete
    3. PUT THE VODKA DOWN JEREMY

      Delete
    4. Chalks, Vodka is not available on the streets for those about to die although it may pass time for them if it was available. But you do not really care about such matters.

      Delete
    5. I prefer Bollinger its the drink for the working class

      Delete
    6. Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
      Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
      Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
      It's easy.
      Nothing you can make that can't be made.
      No one you can save that can't be saved.
      Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love, love.
      Love is all you need.
      Nothing you can know that isn't known.
      Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
      Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love (All together, now!)
      All you need is love (Everybody!)
      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete
  12. One of the polls out today has the Scottish sub sample showing the SNP on 41% and excluding dk 49%.Cons 20% behind. The other poll sub sample is very small and far too Tory when looking at the 2015 recall vote. Think it had the Snp on 41.% and cons 27.%

    ReplyDelete