Thursday, September 7, 2017

Blow for the Tories in Fortissat and Cardonald by-elections

As I suspected might happen, Labour have won both of today's local by-elections - although as is often the case with STV by-elections, the results require a fair bit of interpretation, and classifications like "Labour hold" or "Labour gain" are not really adequate.

Cardonald by-election result :

Labour 48.6% (+10.1)
SNP 36.7% (-7.5)
Conservatives 10.3% (-1.7)
Greens 2.7% (+0.2)
Liberal Democrats 1.5% (n/a)
Scottish Libertarians 0.2% (n/a)

This is technically a "Labour hold", but it's arguably the worse of the two results for the SNP because they won the popular vote in the ward in May, and have since suffered a swing of 8.8% - enough to put Labour ahead if repeated nationwide.

Fortissat by-election result :

Labour 38.5% (+2.0)
A Better Britain - Unionist 23.3% (+12.2)
SNP 20.6% (-8.4)
Conservatives 11.5% (-1.8)
Independent - Cefferty 5.0% (-5.1)
Greens 0.7% (n/a)
UKIP 0.5% (n/a)

This is officially a "Labour gain from the Conservatives", even though Labour comfortably won the popular vote in May with the SNP in second place. The drop in the SNP's vote is slightly steeper than in Cardonald, but probably more important is the fact that the swing to Labour is more modest at only 5.2%, which would actually leave the SNP narrowly ahead if repeated across the country.

The average swing in the two by-elections is roughly 7%, implying an extremely tight race between SNP and Labour nationally - which has been very much the message of recent polling subsamples. Juteman told us the other day that a full-scale Scottish poll from Panelbase appeared to be in the field, which if true would be the first poll of its type from any firm since the general election. If I was a betting man, I would guess that it will show a very small SNP lead, but on tonight's figures it's obviously impossible to rule out a small Labour lead. I'd be very, very surprised if Labour have powered miles ahead, though - there's no evidence at all to support that notion.

Even though the Labour gain from Tory in Fortissat is a bit of a technicality, it's reasonable to say that both results are mildly disappointing for the Tories - their vote is down in both wards in spite of Tory voters being traditionally more likely to make it to the polling stations in low turnout local by-elections. It could be a sign that Peak Tory was reached in May and June, and that there's been some modest slippage since then.

I haven't been able to find details of lower preference transfers in Fortissat yet, but what happened in Cardonald was pretty incredible (if not surprising) - 253 Tory voters transferred to Labour, and only 35 to the SNP.  It really does appear that Tory voters hate the idea of their own country governing itself to such an extent that they'd rather vote for a party led by the far-left.  Who in the 1970s or 80s would ever have thought we'd reach this point?

Oddly, although the Scottish Libertarians are a pro-independence party, not a single one of their twelve voters transferred to the SNP.  Four went to the Greens, two to the Tories, two to the Lib Dems, one to Labour, and three votes were non-transferable.

39 comments:

  1. The Corbyn effect + SNP incumbency + indy fatigue = Labour on the way back up in Scotland. A game changer now needed to secure SNP in power and gain independence.

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    1. To gain independence, possibly, but I doubt if a game-changer would be required to keep the SNP in power at Holyrood. They may well still hold a national lead right now, and it's very hard to imagine Anas Sarwar getting the better of Nicola Sturgeon at a Holyrood election. The same is probably true of Richard Leonard, although he's more of a wild-card.

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    2. I would have thought Leonard was a good choice for Labour until I saw Leonard perform in his speech at the continuation of the Program for Government debate . Animated to the extreme , almost stamping his feet to get attention . Substance , credibility and content , zilch !

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    3. If the SNP and Greens come in at less than 65 seats next time, they wont really be 'in power' will they? Indy gone and everything else depending on the agreement of the unionist majority. In office but not in power.

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    4. Arguably an academic point, because I'd have thought the aim should be to hold the independence referendum before the 2021 election.

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  2. If the two Tory parties had done a deal they could have beaten Labour... Up yer kilts Nat sis.

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    1. Kangaroo says
      Right on cue, up pops the corgi. Yap yap yap yap.

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    2. Its the deal you ISIS Jockistani Jislamist jihadis are doing with Syria that's the problem. God defend England. God save the Queen. No surrender to the IRA.

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    3. F#/k england. F#4k the queen. F#4k the IRA. F#/k the pope. Etc etc. Who cares who you F#/k.
      You are a bigotted F#/ked up idiot.

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    4. Fuck off you bigoted unionist vermin.

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    5. God will never defend England. Who could blame him. England is Scotlands toilet.

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  3. Traditional Labour voters have seen through the Nat si lies about protecting them from the Tories...The Tartan Tory hypocrites have been doing a vigorous Tory austerity programme. Knickerless says she will consider tax next year!

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    1. Traditional labour voters support the orange lodge rangers and the queen WATP FTP GSTQ

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    2. Glasgow is a ghetto, none of you are working cos ur all scrounging from the English tax-payer and not a single one of you chavs has got any class. Your Ghetto Scrounging Chavs worried you wont get a handout from the English pot coz ur all too tight to put ur hands in ur pockets for each other. God defend our green and pleasant land.

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    3. Where on earth did this guy come from?

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    4. I think the English tax payers should tell Scotland to B-off.

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    5. They do everyday via westminster.

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  4. Is there any point in even believing polls any more? They've been proved wrong consistently recently. It seems to be the last 2 weeks of a campaign that only really count.

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  5. What was the turnout?

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  6. "what happened in Cardonald was pretty incredible (if not surprising) - 253 Tory voters transferred to Labour, and only 35 to the SNP"

    Maybe not so surprising. Cardonald is just up the road from Ibrox. The blue nosed Orangemen have been very active in last six months.

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    1. You are a bigot Coleman as Cardonald has a large Catholic population. False information is now a nat si tactic borne on desperation...notwithstanding your attemt to play the relgious card. Knobend.

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    2. State of this hypocrite.

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  7. SNP in North Lanarkshire is a basket case, HQ ignoring all warnings. So hopefully the Fortissat result does not translate to anything meaningful nationally.

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    1. They need to be sorted out they are losing us votes !

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  8. James, will you be giving us some analysis on vote switching etc?

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  9. OMG the wee Englanders still think we have to rely on them!!! wake up and smell the oil that has been robbed from us for years to prop up your silly wee country. get a fucking life.

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    1. E by gum we got yer ile and spent it on the social security jocko me bhoy doon here in Newcastle.

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    2. Not content with bad impersonations of Glaswegians, the fool moves on to bad impersonations of Geordies...

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  10. At every turn the unionist press and their friends publish stories and lies they barely have to justify. It's as if the truth is now just a throw away commodity. When you see the quality and level of work Stuart Campbell produces with a tiny staff and budget, then the question must be why does the SNP not match his effort several times over with their resources. Why does the SNP constantly seem to be sitting on it's hands and remaining quiet when attacked in the press? Where are the demands for truth and rebuttal? Why do they not demand the media issue retractions and apologies? Because the failure to do all or any of these things are losing support. The public will take almost anything that's fed to them because they find it too much hard work to interpret and digest information for themselves. The general public, although not stupid, is about as interested in politics now that it'll only be when their pints and cigarettes are so expensive, and they can no longer afford the pub or to watch 'the game' on the telly... then you'll see an objection. By that time, the unionists will have pushed more and more lies.... and the SNP will have let our goal slip away for decades to come.

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    1. You just said you are clever and the public stupid but what else do you expect from a Nat si... Nae wonder you are going doon hill..

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    2. The comment explicitly stated that the general public are not stupid.

      What's wrong, dearie? A little TL;DR for your Twitteresque attention span?

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    3. What nat sis say and what they actually believe is open for scrutiny.
      Knickerless says devolution is under threat and this is not true. Scotland has powers that will probably will not be used! eg: taxing the rich, bringing public transport back into public ownership and reintroducing GARL...etc.

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