Monday, September 11, 2017

Scale of Davidson flop becomes clear as "extraordinary" Panelbase poll reveals that 42% of public want an independence referendum within LESS THAN TWO YEARS

Panelbase have released the datasets for the full-scale Scottish poll that was published (and so comically misrepresented) in yesterday's Sunday Times.  Here are a few points that leap out -

1) As expected, Panelbase have introduced weighting by recalled 2017 general election vote.  In one sense that's very good news, because it means that there's much less reason to be sceptical about the SNP's double-digit lead over both the Tories and Labour.  If, for example, there had been weighting by 2016 recalled Holyrood vote but not by 2017 vote, there would be a danger that respondents might have got the two elections mixed up, which in all likelihood would lead to the SNP's vote being wrongly adjusted upwards (the exact reverse of the effect that was seen when YouGov used to weight by 2010 vote, rather than 2011).  Instead, the SNP have actually been significantly weighted down on recalled vote, with the 385 respondents who said they voted SNP in June being reduced to 346.

The downside is that 2017 weighting was also applied to the independence question.  We know from YouGov polling that the reduction in the SNP vote in June can be partly explained by people staying at home, rather than defecting to another party.  And yet it's not unreasonable to assume that a lot of those people might well turn out to vote in a second indyref, and would be more likely to vote Yes than No.  The problem with Panelbase's new approach is that to some extent it treats those missing voters as if they don't exist - which could, theoretically, lead to the Yes vote being underestimated.  It certainly means that the new poll is not directly comparable with Panelbase's previous independence poll, which was conducted just before the general election.  That factor alone might explain the small (and statistically insignificant) drop in the Yes vote from 44% to 43%.

2) The only possible reason I can think of for still being a little cautious about the SNP's handsome lead is that the independence question was asked before the Holyrood voting intention question.  It's arguable that this might put pro-independence voters in a frame of mind where they'd be more likely to favour the SNP rather than Labour.  That's pure speculation on my part, but I don't think the possibility can be totally ruled out.

3) There's a preamble to the independence question: "If the referendum was held again tomorrow, how would you vote in response to the question..."  There's no way of knowing whether that makes any difference to the result, but I think the wording is unwise, because it invites people to think about how they would vote in a re-run of a referendum they have already voted in - perhaps nudging them back towards their original choice, rather than inviting them to think of the next referendum as a completely fresh vote taking place in a different context (ie. Brexit).

4) Judging from the numbering in the datasets, there are clearly some results from the poll that haven't seen the light of day yet.  In the past, the Sunday Times have sometimes held results back for a week so they can get two weeks' worth of headlines out of the same poll.  If a Westminster voting intention question was asked, and if the results were less favourable for the SNP than the Holyrood constituency numbers (as they probably would be), I'm wondering if they're being held back for a good old "blow for Sturgeon" effort next week.  It does, however, look like there was no question about Holyrood regional list voting intention, because there's no obvious reason why that would have been withheld.  The omission makes it impossible to use the poll to project seat totals in the Scottish Parliament.

5) Although the wording is a bit slippery, there's a finding that seems to imply that 49% of respondents think that Scotland will be independent within less than 20 years, compared to 42% who do not.  And only 32% think that Scotland is not likely to become independent "at any point in the next few decades".

6) An astonishing total of 42.3% of respondents want the next independence referendum to take place within less than two years.  Admittedly that's down on the roughly 50/50 split we've seen on that question in previous Panelbase polls, but nevertheless it's an absolutely stunning slap in the face for the commentators who have spent the last three months trying to convince themselves that the SNP's decisive victory in June somehow rendered the issue of independence "dead".

53 comments:

  1. Tell it to the craven SNP who seem hell bent on NOT having any sort of Indy vote before we leave the EU, thus getting our membership 'parked' until Independence day and we have absolutely met ALL of the Acquis instead of over 90% of it.

    Which is why we have Salmond wittering about a question next time about joining EFTA as the SNP don't fancy a full application for EU entry after we are out.

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    1. The Scottish people have a right to see how brexit pans out. If we end up trading freely with countries from around the world as well as having a good trade relationship with the EU, then neither EU nor EFTA membership are required.

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    2. The present Tory regime in London do not wish to trade with Europe because that entails being accountable to European courts and they do not like that.
      The fantasy that countries around the globe are queueing up to do business with them will soon be exposed as simply that.
      Everyone knows they are desperate to do deals and will get bargain basement arrangements with Fox and Co which will be to their benefit and not ours.
      England has always been a fairly unsuccessful country and has only prospered when in a position to exploit other country's resources,which unfortunately for us Scots only leaves us.
      For Scotland,we will have a choice of either trading with England,on their terms,or joining with othet countries in Europe on mutually agreed arrangements.


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    3. You should set up the Scottish Yesser Bams With No Political Sense Party, sweep the board next HR election, UDI, wallop.

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    4. As part of an existing EU member State, how can it be that we meet "only 90%" of the acquis communitaire? Surely some mistake.

      More generally, everything short of independence must be both mooted by us and rejected by Them so that not even the most barkingest of Britnats can say we didn't try hard enough.

      We have to have the referendum before Brexit but after we know what's involved, so that the Scottish electorate is properly informed (difficult with the meeja we have, admittedly), and before Westminster usurps the power to disenfranchise certain classes of voter as it did in the Brexit referendum.

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    5. The UK will likely strike free trade deals very quickly with:

      America
      Turkey
      Japan
      Canada
      Australia
      Most of the rest of the Commonwealth.
      The remaining EU, when cool heads inevitably prevail.

      The UK could set itself up as a centre of world commerce. Scotland, as part of the UK, could benefit from this.

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    6. @Anonymous
      On what terms? Australia, New Zealand and Canada all remember the cold shoulder when the UK entered the EEC and have people who have negotiated free trade deals with many other countries/blocs so they will eat the naive, UK negotiators for breakfast.

      'Copy and paste EU trade deals'? only if the countries we want to trade with agree can that happen. Why should the Commonwealth countries accept the same crape deals?

      Besides all those and especially NZ found other markets for their produce, in NZ's case, China/HK, Japan, Soviets/Russia and much of the Middle East including Saudi AND Iran.

      I grew up in NZ following that event and saw the reorganisation of ports and freezing works/dairies, the development, marketing and spread around the world horticultural tech to grow the Chinese gooseberry, sorry the Kiwifruit (It was the middle of the Cold War). NZ has famously sold sand to the Saudis. They want some more apparently.

      NZ still has a native steel industry smelting the West Coast ironsands. Though NZ Steel make more actual money from the titanium contamination than the steel as they export that while the steel is largely for local consumption. It roofs the country and wraps all the telephone/power poles to keep the possums off the lines.

      You are dreaming I'm afraid.

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    7. Just... no. Anyone who has lived in Australia (as I have) knows just how much the Aussies hate the Brits; and for deep historical reasons. Churchill used the Anzacs as cannon fodder, and abandoned Aussie troops at SIngapore to save the ships for war in the Med... leaving thousands to be driven to death in the jungle. They know that the UK was willing to see Australia fall to Japan undefended, and only the USA saved them. They know that the UK abandoned them when we joined the EEC, and left them to dangle. Australia will enjoy their sweet revenge of playing the UK along, then imposing the harshest terms they can on any "deal". There will be one way complete freedom of movement for Aussies coming here to live and work, whilst UK citizens wait in line with everyone else going the other way... and all the other commonwealth nations will demand the same. India has already said - no people, no trade.

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    8. "They will eat the naïve UK negotiators for breakfast".

      Who says the UK negotiators will be inexperienced? We can hire experienced trade negotiators from around the world. They don't have to be home grown anymore than our footballers are.

      "the Aussies hate the Brits"

      So why did they decide 18 years ago to continue with our Queen as their head of state?

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    9. I don't think UK trade deals will go anywhere in a hurry. First thing the Indians, Australians, etc have said is they want more visas, and more visas is the one thing Theresia is not going to give them.

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    10. Usual Brexit daydreaming of success...If it were just a case of wishing for trade deals then I would agree. Sadly however there is much negotiation involved....

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    11. And even more negotiation when 29 countries need to agree a trade deal rather than 2. The UK will be able to make fast deals while the EU stumbles over Ireland or a region of Belgium being upset about some small detail.

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  2. Anonymous,
    Are you self deluded, or are the magic mushrooms particularly good tonight?

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    1. Lots of countries trade freely with the EU without being in it, east neuker. Canada does so and is a smaller, more distant economy than that of Britain. A trade deal will be struck, after a transitional period that effectively keeps us in the EU while all these things are agreed. The cost to both sides of no deal is simply too costly.

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    2. Yeah, but people like Canada. They don't spend 90% of the time blaming other countries.when you puss over your friends fence a few times, don't complain if they electrify it....

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    3. Jocks must be in the tap 20 of world moaners.. If its not the price of coal or milk then it the English being better aff than us. Wee Knickerless is the Chief Scottish Moaner, she is like Frazer the undertaker in Dads Army.

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    4. The wee queens corgi back again. Yap yap yap, yap yap yap.

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    5. See even the Scots dugs yap and moan. The jockos cannae help it jist raised tae dae it. They English shagged ma great great great grannie efter Culloden an a hiv a big foreheid and put suger in ma purrige.

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    6. We have a good relationship with the countries of the EU, Bill. We just don't want to be in the EU. So the least we can expect is the best relationship they are prepared to offer to countries on the outside. If they are going to be hostile to us - unlikely beyond the blowhard negotiation stage - we can be hostile back.

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    7. Telling people the facts is not blowing hard. The posturing and sabre-rattling and general provocative and insulting nonsense is all coming from the Britnat side. And just who is this "we" who just don't want to be in the EU? Sorry, you do not have my permission to include me in that, nor do you have my permission to strip me of my European citizenship.

      I notice that Michel Barnier is prepared to meet with representatives of the Scottish Government, whereas David Davis is not. That tells you all you need to know about the differing attitudes of Westminster and the EU towards Scotland and its people. In this country, we voted not to strip people of any of their rights, be they old Scots or new Scots. We voted to Remain.

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    8. But the vote was a British one and we collectively voted to leave. That is the 'we' I refer to: we, collectively, the British people. Not every single individual, but a democratic majority thereof.

      There is no legal basis for the 'divorce bill' of up to 100 billion. We may well pay something, but if we are not obliged to do so by law then we will be looking for something in return - a quid pro quo arrangement. The EU rejection of this sensible position as well as their personal insults directed at the brexit secretary demonstrate that they are not being entirely reasonable in this process.


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    9. But Scotland is a country and we collectively voted to remain in the EU. We did so very emphatically, and that is the 'we' to which we refer - we, collectively, the Scottish people. Not every single individual, but a democratic majority thereof.

      When we voted narrowly to remain in the UK in 2014, that decision was based on a specific undertaking from the No campaign that Scotland would be remaining in the EU. We have not yet given any democratic authority for this country to leave the EU under any circumstances.

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    10. We voted for the UK to stay in the EU, on the terms that had been promised to David Cameron in February of 2016. That does not translate to Scotland staying in on vastly different terms while the rest of the UK leaves.

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    11. So the terms might be different so you need to leave anyway seems to the the Anon argument, this "Scotland shut your gub because..." gets more lightweight and obtuse by the day.

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    12. The UK holds membership of the EU, not Scotland in its own right. If the UK leaves, so does Scotland. If there is appetite for an independence referendum and for "yes and the UK govt is prepared to agree to that referendum then good luck. Otherwise, Scotland leaves the EU.

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  3. How can they apply GE17 weighting to the independence question? I'm an EU citizen, so I cannot vote in Westminster elections, but I can and do vote in Holyrood elections and independence referendums.

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    1. You will soon just be an EU citizen and not be British in any way. So you have a choice! Stay or go.

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    2. We British Nationalists are the most inclusive people in the world, we love everyone except jock Nat sis,moslems,catholics,jews,blacks and poofs. I hope I haven't left anyone out. We are really fond of jocko house slaves they do as they are told.

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    3. Jock impersonator it will be a wan way ticket for youz traitors on the National Express down sausage side, lederhosen supplied.

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    4. Stench of this.

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  4. Good point, Thomas. Presumably this is the same for 16 and 17 year olds?

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    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Advertising is it? Not an appropriate venue, mate

      Delete
  6. Post more than Great , Kindly Thanks


    spot7.org


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  7. Congrats to Dennis Skinner a man of principal.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Better together rides again. Bow down to your Imperial masters fash Jocko Nat sis

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    2. Ben dover in your case fash bhoy.

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    3. We britz natsis bow down all the time thats why we are always on our knees

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    4. Impersonator we Brits are not crawling under Junk er tae suck im ya bunch a scum bags...Please please let uz stay in herr junk er....

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    5. Ah, the slimey trail, of the resident garden slug.

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  8. Admirable that you are capable of self recognition.

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    Replies
    1. That would place us significantly higher up the evolutionary scale than pond life like you, dearie. Now, off you pop; those green ink letters to the Dreary Heil won't write themselves.

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  9. You nat sis will never rise to the intellectual level of the pond life... Now just go and crawl tae yer German pals.

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    Replies
    1. You Britnat sis will never rise to the intellectual level of the pond life... Now just go and crawl tae yer Tory pals.

      There you go, petal; all fixed. No need to thank me.

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  10. Nat sis attack Theresa May for poverty and foodbanks in Glasgow... Nat sis in power for how long fash bhoys? MSP'S sitting on their hands collecting the dosh while Scots suffer.
    Tax the rich ya Tartan Tory lying scum.

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    Replies
    1. We should give tax deductions for the privileged like lord foulkes and darling how else can they afford to get the worn out knees on their troosers fixed.

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  11. I can work out what people who think that Scotland will be Independent in next 20 yrs etc think is going to happen in the meantime: are they OK with how we are? Do they think someone is going to come to save us? Do they have the slightest idea what is happening?

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    Replies
    1. Not sure if you'll get an answer on here, Brian. Most contributors aren't content to wait that long. Others, like Aldo, disagree entirely with independence and are coherent in their position. I respect that, even if I disagree with him. Unlike the troll...

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    2. Scotland an independent country in a Union with others. The Nat si game is to break the Union because you hate the English and would have no problem handing power to the EU. You are hypocritical liars.

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    3. You sir, sound like a bitter, disgrace to humanity.

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  12. Nat sí! Remember we only need to win once. Help someone register to vote, take a friend with you and vote YES.

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    Replies
    1. "Remember we only need to win once".

      Yes, but you can't even do that. You've only had since 1934.

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