Friday, November 10, 2017

Nineteenth subsample in a row puts the SNP ahead

A new Britain-wide YouGov poll is out today, so this may be a good moment to round-up the Scottish subsamples that have been published since my last update.  There have only been a couple...

Ipsos-Mori: SNP 43%, Labour 24%, Conservatives 23%, Liberal Democrats 9%

YouGov: SNP 36%, Labour 28%, Conservatives 25%, Liberal Democrats 5%, UKIP 4%, Greens 1%

That means nineteen subsamples in a row have put the SNP in an outright lead.  Just the usual reminder - any individual subsample should not be regarded as reliable, but an aggregate/average of a large number of subsamples can give you a rough indication of what is happening.  The sheer consistency of the SNP lead in subsamples since early September is probably indicative of quite a healthy SNP advantage on the ground, and is very much in line with the message from full-scale Scottish polls (although admittedly we haven't had any of those for a few weeks).

Are there any clouds on the horizon?  Obviously the hysteria over Alex Salmond's new TV show has only just happened, so we'll have to wait and see how that plays out.  It goes without saying that the criticisms of Salmond are hypocritical bilge given that leading politicians from all major parties have been willingly interviewed on the same channel, but on the other hand it is unusual (probably unprecedented) for Nicola Sturgeon to put out a personal statement distancing herself from something Salmond has done.  She and her advisers may have thought that was a safety-first approach, but I suspect the truly dangerous thing is for parties to allow themselves to look divided.  However, it's a very polite division on a relatively minor issue, so in spite of the mainstream media's valiant demands that their readers and viewers should care about this, I expect the likelihood is that we'll look back on it as a 72-hour wonder. 

25 comments:

  1. Hi James. Looked at the YouGov tables via the UKPR site link and the first one gave "Headline Voting Intention" and 42/28/25 SNP/Lab/Con split. Not sure if I've interperated it properly so obviously will stand corrected! Cheers.

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    1. No, the 42% is for 'others' - which breaks down as 36% SNP, 4% UKIP and 1% Greens. (The missing 1% will be down to rounding.)

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  2. I still get shocked when I see UKIP listed in Scottish voting intentions. I do realise I shouldn’t be. But I just hate to see it there.

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    1. UKIP are the most progressive party since 1975. Without them we would have remained in the vile corrupt Neo Liberal anti working class EU. Their purpose is now. You should now be concerned about getting rid of the right wing Tartan Tories and supporting Labour.

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    2. What kind of nugget spends all their time on a website about Poll's and Voting , putting up snidey messages to every comment.

      Have you actually got nothing better to do than look like an anonymous arsehole.

      What will you say to yourself when you are on your deathbed....oooh I annoyed a few folk...

      What a great epitaph. I can only imagine you have some mental illness or are idly employed in a council admin job somewhere. Probably both.

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    3. What kind of arsehole thinks this is not a Jock Nat si propoganda website.

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    4. At the very least learn to spell a word before your use it, you imbecile.

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  3. Once out of the EU gravy train then get rid of the bandwagon useless jocko mafia politicians... It wil take a wee while but their end is inevitable. Up their kilts.

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    1. Finally you accept that the rich Tories have been milking the EU !

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  4. Great to see we are still holding with such a big gap .Great also to see business is booming in Scotland thanks to SNP policies , long may it continue

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  5. Cold War ensues in the Tartan Tory party. Knickerless slams the Leninist Kim Yung Eck for talking oan the Russkie TV. Big faw oot expected!

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    1. Your intelligence abounds us with a new sense of direction.I hope I don't get in the way.

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    2. Ach soo you are more than one person!

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  6. Think your on the money, James, with "72 hour wonder" .... but as posted on WoS .... how many more folk are going to watch AS on RT because of the "Outrage & Traitor" claptrap ? .... could be interesting !!!

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    1. It would be interesting to know the views of wee Eck on NATO and the Soviet Gulags that did not exist in the minds of the Western Stalinists.

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    2. Labour Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha You Kill me! Labour Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!!!!

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    3. Jocko Nat si fash supporters of Lord Haw Haw Haw, Haw Haw Haw.

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  7. 500 hunner days tae go. If I could walk 5 hunner days an aye could walk 5 hunner days, da da da da, da da da da, dum de dum de dum de de dum. Up yer kilts fash.

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  8. GWC2 possible court cases loom for hate speech,racist comments and incitement.

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    1. Flash we have only 499 days to save our miserable jobs before Brexit.

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  9. Well James Cheyne be carefull you do not incite us British.

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    1. Well GWC2 perhaps you are not aware that the name Cheyne is English,and for a check on history will soon confirm this for you,in fact even time team and antiques road show mention their castles,maybe self determination of ones life does not aquate to hate speech or incitement and intent towards malicious racesism,many English,Welsh,Irish,American,polish,Norwegian live and work in Scotland.i apologise for all the others I have not mentioned as there are so many,and we vote in Scotland by being democractic.not because we are being intimated or brow beaten or by someone trying to cause hatred in a peaceful country.and I may add my partner is also English who,s family have a coat of arms and family crest.there are many English here in scotland,and many more still moving here to date.scotland and its people are welcoming and friendly.if anyone has a problem here,I would suggest that perhaps they themselfs are not able to fit into society.

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    2. It never occured to me what country a name represents. I do not get your point, sorry. I have been in many countries and the people have been welcoming including Yorkshire England.

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    3. Yorkshire isn't a country, halfwit.

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