Friday, January 5, 2018

Do the SNP have three times as many members as the unionist parties combined?

Just thought I'd pass on a snippet of information sent to me by Stuart Dickson.  He spotted on Stormfront Lite that the ESRC-funded Party Members Project has found that 5% of Labour members live in Scotland, as do 6% of Liberal Democrat members, and 10% of Conservative members.  If those numbers are accurate (ie. if they're not a wildly misleading approximation or out of date), it's possible to use the UK-wide membership numbers to estimate how many members each party has in Scotland.  It would put the Lib Dems on roughly 6500, Labour on about 28,500, and the Tories on about 10,000.  That compares to an SNP membership of 118,000 as of August - roughly three times as much as the apparent combined membership of the unionist parties.

The Labour figure may seem a little higher than expected, but it's broadly in line with what we learned at the leadership election a few weeks ago, in which 17,664 full members cast a vote on a turnout of 62.3%.  The party does seem to have demonstrated a certain cockroach-like resilience during its historic crisis over the last three-and-a-half years.

77 comments:

  1. "The party does seem to have demonstrated a certain cockroach-like resilience during its historic crisis over the last three-and-a-half year" (sides definitively split)

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  2. Figures for Scottish Labour seem somewhat out of line compared to Wings over Scotland's estimates (6-8000 as I recall). I believe he calculated his from branch office accounts and other sources, which removed those who are simply members of Labour clubs and those who get to vote in the leadership election by virtue of union membership. Worth a comparison of the two methodologies? (Although it doesn't change your conclusion, it is interesting to get a more accurate indication of how many people Labour's Scottish branch office can call on to do actual campaigning).

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    1. As mentioned in the blogpost, 17,664 full Labour members voted in the leadership election, so at least as of this autumn the membership must have been far more than 8000-strong.

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  3. Could the 28,000 Labour members include "£2 supporters" and TU members?

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    1. No. There was an absolutely tiny number of registered supporters in the leadership election a few weeks ago.

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  4. My first thoughts are:

    Conservative figure is surprisingly low. Conclusion: they are going to have hellish problems holding on to their currently high numbers of councillors, MSPs and MPs. A friendly media only gets them so far. Eventually it is feet on ground that really matters.

    Lib Dem figure about what I’d expect. They seem to have doubled their membership from their nadir about 5 years ago. Brexit no doubt attracted back some pro-European ex-members in a huff about the Cameron-Clegg fiasco years. They will now ruthlessly focus on holding the very few councillors and parliamentarians they have, a task made very easy by the fact that they have virtually zero winnable seats to target gains from other parties, so they will not get distracted from a Hold strategy. (Good news for eg. Jo Swinson.)

    Labour figure about as expected. I’ve noticed that two or three Yes-voting friends are keen on Corbyn and/or Momentum/Labour, so may switch to Labour at coming elections. This is hardly a surprise. But if Labour wants to attract and keep Yes-voters they will need to keep their looniest Brit Nat wing in check. Can’t see them managing that. What Scottish Labour really needs now is a cerebral, pro-Scottish personality à la Wendy Alexander or Henry McLeish. They just haven’t got anybody remotely like that: their front bench is simply a joke. Nevertheless, they will certainly be taking a few councillors and parliamentarians off the SNP, but it will mean zilch for the constitutional question, as they’ll be doing it on the back of Yes-supporters. Which will not stop the BBC and media falsely reporting it as a victory for the Union.

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    1. If some YES supporters are thinking of voting for Labour, and, let us adopt the principle of charity, it is not an unreasonable thing to do, if they have socialist or social democratic views. But, why do they not advocate within the Labour Party that independence is a reasonable policy? Contrary to Ms Dugdale, you can have better social policy with independence. After independence it is likely that the variety of views represented within the membership of the SNP - and they have the common cause of independence as their priority - will separate into contending democratic parties.

      The problem with Labour and Scottish Labour is that of goal displacement. It exists for the benefit of its members. It is tribal, it is 'if yer no wi us yer agin us'. I think there are sincere socialists and social democrats in the Labour Party, but I think this gets pushed aside in the intrigues and petty jockeying for short term gain.

      I think your point about the lack of genuine 'thinkers' in the party is strong. You mention Wendy Alexander and Henry McLeish, but fairly recently we had people like Gordon Brown, Robin Cook, Donald Dewar, John Smith.

      I know they are real marmite figures to most - and to a fair extent (with one of them, at least) to me, too - I remember in 2014 a debate between Jim Sillars and George Galloway and the fact is that they could actually DEBATE, i.e. they knew the arguments well and could think on their feet and respond.

      During the UK Labour leadership when Mr Corbyn won, he was the only one who actually argued from a principled position and responded to questions and points put to him, whereas the others like Yvette Cooper, Andy Burnham, Liz Kendall (who?) just trotted out cliches to every point. They were terrified to say anything outwith the actual text of the shorter catechism. Mr Corbyn won, I think, mainly because people saw him as the only one who was actually a human being rather than a cardboard cut-out with a pre-recorded message playing on a loop.

      PS I se the New Statesman is touting a Ruth Davidson/Andy Burnham leadership for a new decentralised UK!

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  5. Jungle Dugee has got the SNP well and truly licked. The lezzier Dug is going to expose all the cracks one by one.

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    1. Dugee has been undercover probing away at SNP weakspots for months and its all about to come out in the wash.

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    2. FFS! Get a life.

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  6. It is not unexpected that the nat sis have a large membership. Fanatics do tend to congregate in larger cliques. The important thing is the silent majority of sensibles who vote for the Union.

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    1. If there is, as you spray, a "silent majority of sensibles", it cannot possibly include you...

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    2. Ergo, The Tories are fanatics. Now! About this silent majority?

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    3. Doesn't include the troll. It's never silent and never in the majority...

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  7. Lets face it nat sis you clearly do not know you are the jocko version of the Tories or are you in denial!

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    1. State of this screeching halfwit. Have you figured out why you're a Unionist yet, troll?

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    2. It was being born in Britain you thick Jock hawfwitt.

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    3. I'm glad you've put so very much thought into your British nationalism...

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    4. Not a lot to think about. Born in UK = BRITISH CITIZEN not a nat si.
      I note your great leader Knickerless is on the bandwagon again pledging to lead the great fight against the Brexit.
      horror show. She had gone quiet for a bit but I suppose when you are on over 100k a year you have spout some crap.

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    5. QED. We always knew you weren't a big thinker.

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  8. The Labour election figure will include Union affiliates who can vote in such things but are not active members as such. I have an SNP voting friend who is a shop steward and used his affiliate vote to elect Corbyn ("because its funny")

    On Michael Crick's Twitter thing yesterday he indicated that he had been told that the most up to date Tory membership figure is 70,000. This would mean that they have 7,000 Scottish members if the 10% still holds good. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/948938063719358464

    In short, yes, I think the SNP do have far more members and activists than the other parties.

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    1. "The Labour election figure will include Union affiliates"

      The 17,664 figure I gave in the blogpost is for full members only.

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    2. Your nat si voting shop steward friend affiliates to Labour therefore must pay the levvy. Strange game of silly buggers.

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    3. #stablegenius #greeninkgang

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  9. James, when any referendum does come well need all the support we can get to win it.

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    1. You need to come clean with the truth and concequences of leaving the Union.
      Perhaps the Unionist voter will then a least give you nat sis some respect.

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    2. #stablegenius #greeninkgang

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  10. Interesting reading, Is it the case that SNP members are especially passionate pro-independence whereas the small unionist majority are less passionate/more pragmatic and this would explain the numbers?

    Scottish Politics these days is fascinating - so many opinions & so much flux & overlap...

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  11. Politics is fascinating indeed. Thousands of French born Jews leaving Free France because of anti semitism and public harassment.. So much for minority protection in the EU. Brexit cannot come soon enough.

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    1. Thus speaks the ethnic British nationalist.

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    2. A lot of sympathy for the Jews in that reply fascist bhoy. I assume then you are a Jew hater.

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    3. I hate no one, not even you, troll. Take your assumptions and get back under your rock before daylight burns you.

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    4. You had the opportunity to actually comment on what is happening on the ground to EU citizens in France and no doubt in the wider EU but chose to evade with your stupid response. That says it all Nat si or is it Nazi!

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    5. I evaded nothing. I chose not to allow you to call me an anti-Semite when you have no evidence. You, on the other hand, have repeatedly provided evidence of your racism, sexism, homophobia and transphobia. Your views are considerably more right-wing authoritarian than anything I have ever written here. Now, I'm sure you have many letters to write to the Dreary Heil, so I'll let you get back to your green Biros. Cheerio.

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    6. You have evaded. You have no interest in Jewish people being hunted out of your wonderful EU that you wish to join. So you go on the attack with unsubstantiated drivel. What chance for the English living in Scotland if you fascists ever get total power in Scotland nat si bhoy.

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    7. "Unsubstantiated drivel"? You've been posting racist, racist and homophobic statements on here for years, and recently added transphobic statements to your sickening repertoire. Ergo, you are a proven liar.

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    8. "Unsubstantiated drivel":

      GWC2January 4, 2018 at 11:32 PM
      The law of nature gives a man a willie and women get a vagina... The NHS is available for health problems... Perhaps in the future the NHS will provide free frocks for men!...
      New Year Joke: Man in restaurant recognises a woman opposite that was a school mate but seems to recall she was a man. They got into conversation and the woman says she had a sex change. The guy asks was it difficult? She says no it was relatively easy just a boob job and a nip and tuck down there. Was it really that easy the man asks. Well she said they did have a problem narrowing my brain.

      Conclusion: you're sexist and transphobic as well as a proven liar. QED.

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    9. Naw have a look doon at your crotch or a wee feel between yer legs and that will determine what your sex is. Now go and put on your make up and Jock strap.

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    10. The proven liar has nothing but transphobic insults with which to respond. There's a surprise...

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  12. Apologies for not spotting this earlier, James. I suspect your figures aren't too far out, though YouGov had nothing to weight their numbers to, so their percentages are vulnerable to panel distortion. Stu's figures were based on the finances, but he seemed to miss that a lot of the money from Scotland stays in London and never gets to SLab accounts. Which is odd when you consider he spends a lot of time going on about this in other contexts.

    That said Labour may be a bit high on 28,500 - 62% seems a low turnout for a leadership election (UK was 77% for Corbyn v Smith). I reckoned 25,000 may be nearer which would give 70%. It's clear that SLab haven't benefited from the Corbyn surge as much as other parts of the UK.

    We actually have an SLD figure for December 2016 of 3903:

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/Api/Accounts/Documents/19408#page=9

    If they got a proportionate election year boost as the rest of the Lib Dems:

    http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN05125

    that would put them at about 5,000.

    No one really knows what the Conservatives overall membership is - including themselves I suspect. Poor record keeping and various categories of supporter don't help, but I suspect the 70,000 being bandied around is way too low and 150,000 is more likely, if only because all Parties get an election year surge. You'd expect Scotland to be lower than the pro-rata 12,750, so 10,000 seems a good round figure.

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    1. It is the policies, arguments and moreso the voter that matters not the abundance of the party members as most are dead wood. The dedicated members hit the cobbles before an election and are forgotten until just before the next.

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    2. Snivelled like a true Killer.

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    3. Was it painfull anon did you get a sermon on the mount?

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    4. The proven liar has nothing but homophobic insults with which to respond. There's a surprise...

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  13. James, on a lighter note it states on another web page that you are a left blog and so is Harry' s Place. I did chuckle at that although I doubt the CIA funds you.

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    1. #JTRIG #agentprovocateur

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  14. Malta is a member of the corrupt EU. Who would have thought Scotland would have considered being a member!

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  15. Whit iz it wae you Anonymous dae ye need tae reply fur James? Are you the main man or transexual oan here, the big knob innat.

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    1. The proven liar has nothing but transphobic insults with which to respond. There's a surprise...

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  16. What is transphobic? Is it a proven illness/phobia. Can you prove it exists? Are you an expert? Or just a tit?

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    1. The proven liar has nothing but insults with which to respond. There's a surprise. Away back to your green Biros; those letters to the Dreary Heil won't write themselves.

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    2. Wrong Jocko I do not read the Jock Nationalist. You are a victim of your own imagination.

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  17. And you're a proven liar as well as utterly confused about the Daily Mail's political stance. Why would anyone believe anything you write?

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    1. Proven liar! When? The Daily Mail is a fine newspaper!

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    2. AnonymousJanuary 9, 2018 at 6:09 AM
      "Unsubstantiated drivel":

      GWC2January 4, 2018 at 11:32 PM
      The law of nature gives a man a willie and women get a vagina... The NHS is available for health problems... Perhaps in the future the NHS will provide free frocks for men!...
      New Year Joke: Man in restaurant recognises a woman opposite that was a school mate but seems to recall she was a man. They got into conversation and the woman says she had a sex change. The guy asks was it difficult? She says no it was relatively easy just a boob job and a nip and tuck down there. Was it really that easy the man asks. Well she said they did have a problem narrowing my brain.

      Conclusion: you're sexist and transphobic as well as a proven liar. QED.

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    3. That is your conclusion and that of a thick anti English jocko idiot...Your mother left the best part in a galvanised bucket... You are either far right or left both lacking a sense of humour... Up yer kilt Jock.

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    4. ...and that's all the proven liar has in response. (Laughs) Even by your standards, troll, that's pathetic.

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  18. Mein Gott you Nat sis have not been moaning for a few days when lots have been happening outside the wee parochial nat si Scotland. The Donald has declined visiting the UK in fear of his life. And if only he got a blow job from an intern he would have been welcomed. Seamen Stanes on a dress would have made the Donald popular like Clinton who invaded the Balkans.

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    1. DT denied that it was fear which stopped him visiting. Why do you think he lied?

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    2. Do not care, he is a politician and expected to lie.

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    3. Just like you...

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  19. "Seamen Stanes"? WTF??? Get yourself a dictionary or something.

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    1. Since when did Jocks use dictionaries?

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    2. It would explain your semi-literate lies, right enough...

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  20. Lord Adonis and Knickerless are the new Krankies and EU erse lickers.

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    1. You're a proven liar.

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    2. The comedy duo would not require any makeup both are naturals.

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    3. You're still a proven liar.

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    4. You do not know what you are girlie bhoy.

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  21. Knickerless joining with her hated anti brexit BBC to spout her anti brexit doom and gloom propaganda.. Whit a wee shite she is. Enemies can be friends.

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  22. James will be aware that a Sinn Fein PIRA politician has resigned for putting a loaf on his head to taunt the relatives of the murdered working class men who were taken from a minibus lined up and slaughtered. What the press are not saying is that the PIRA told the only Catholic that was travelling on the minibus to step aside while the others were mown down. Such is nationalism.

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