Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Mainstream media's narrative lies in TATTERS as SNP vote increases across the board in sensational new Survation poll

"Mike Smithson, calling Mike Smithson...Mike Smithson, come in please."  If you happen to be sitting next to a certain 'impartial election expert' who demonstrated such an inspiring willingness to 'help' the voters of East Dunbartonshire last year, you might want to give him a wee nudge.  Before tonight, there had been six full-scale Scottish polls since the general election, of which four could reasonably be described as good for the SNP - ie. they showed the SNP on a higher share of the Westminster vote than was achieved in June.  Mr Smithson literally pretended those four didn't exist (and even made mind-boggling comments such as "in the complete absence of any Scottish polling...").  He was all over the other two polls like a rash.  But I'm sure that this apparent pattern is just totally coincidental, and that he'll set our minds to rest first thing in the morning with a big splash on Stormfront Lite about tonight's remarkable Survation poll, which shows the SNP making progress at both Westminster and Holyrood level.

Scottish voting intentions for next Westminster election:

SNP 39% (+1)
Labour 27% (-2)
Conservatives 24% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 7% (n/c)

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 42% (+3)
Labour 25% (-3)
Conservatives 25% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 33% (+1)
Conservatives 23% (+2)
Labour 23% (-1)
Greens 9% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-2)
UKIP 3% (n/c)

Don't be thrown off the scent by the fact that the Tory vote has proved reasonably stable between the last Survation poll and this one.  The single most important fact about Scottish polling at the moment is that the gap between the SNP and the Tories at Westminster level has undoubtedly widened since the general election, meaning there is every chance that some of the Tory gains last June will be reversed if there is another general election any time soon.  If this particular poll is correct, the SNP lead over the Tories has essentially doubled from eight points in June to fifteen points now, but no post-election poll has had the gap at less than twelve points.

By contrast, although this poll suggests that the SNP lead over Labour has also increased since the election, it's harder to be sure whether that's what has really happened.  Three of the seven post-election Scottish polls have shown Labour making minor inroads into the SNP's lead, so there may have been a small swing in either direction.  Because the SNP and Labour both hold seats with wafer-thin margins over each other, either party would be equally justified in feeling optimistic about making significant gains in SNP-Labour battleground areas.  But obviously if tonight's poll is exactly right, the SNP would be in luck and would take seats from both the Tories and Labour, increasing its tally of Westminster seats from 35 to well over 40.

Now, I know some people will caution that the SNP's improvement in this poll could easily be margin of error 'noise', and that's undoubtedly true.  The 3% swing from Labour to SNP on the Holyrood constituency vote looks more dramatic than changes elsewhere in the poll, but even that could potentially be explained by margin of error effects.  But in a sense that misses the crucial point - what really matters about this poll is that the SNP's vote hasn't fallen.  You might recall that there was a YouGov poll that took us by surprise recently by showing a sharp 4-point drop in the SNP's vote to 36% - the first time the party had fallen below the 37% share recorded at the general election.  (The aforementioned Mr Smithson wasted no time in painting that as an unmitigated disaster for Nicola Sturgeon.)  If Survation had shown something similar tonight, it would have looked very likely that YouGov had been the first to detect a genuine new trend.  As it is, it now looks more probable that the changes reported by YouGov were just a margin of error illusion, and that the SNP's Westminster vote has held steady - perhaps somewhere in the high 30s.

Oddly enough, Labour have more or less re-established themselves as Scotland's second party at Westminster level, but have failed to do so at Holyrood level.  Five of the seven post-election polls, including tonight's, have had Labour ahead of the Tories at Westminster.  But five of the seven have also had the Tories either ahead of Labour, or level with Labour, on the Holyrood constituency vote.  The explanation for this phenomenon is probably a small degree of cross-voting - ie. a modest percentage of people who would vote SNP on the Holyrood constituency ballot, and either SNP or Green on the Holyrood list ballot, are backing Labour at Westminster.  That's proving just enough for the moment to keep Labour ahead of the Tories in Westminster terms.

Survation also asked the independence question...

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 46% (n/c)
No 54% (n/c)

In a sense that corroborates YouGov's findings, which also suggested there has been no statistically significant changes in public opinion on independence.  The difference, however, is that YouGov continued to suggest the Yes vote is slightly lower than the 45% recorded in the 2014 referendum, whereas Survation are continuing to suggest it is slightly higher than 45%.  There seem to be 'house effects' at play here.  But whichever firm you choose to believe, the post-election bandwagon effect for No that was predicted by some has plainly failed to materialise.

37 comments:

  1. Inevitable. People aren't stupid - and they don't appreciate being treated as stupid by broadcasters and news publications.

    Quietly winning-over hearts and minds.

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    1. Great result for the English parties 58-39 over the Jocks. Yet another victory, the chariot rolls on, come on England!

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  2. Unionist voters still well ahead of the English hating jock fascists. The Unionists are not stupid.

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    1. Most of the Glasgow working class I know are not stupid either. You ,however, seem to be the exception to the rule

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    2. Just ignore the "Glaikit Wasteminster Collaborator" and his evil twin GWC2. They're tangerine coloured and not worth the effort, as they never have anything worthwhile to contribute.

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    3. The Downton Abbey syndrome strikes again.

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    4. A Tartan Tory who claims to know some working class people!

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    5. It's "Glaikit's" brother "Gormless". Nothing to contribute as usual.

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  3. James, what are the changes from? They're not what Daily Record shows as changes so I'm a bit confused. The DR says the Tories have dropped 5 points. *scratches head*

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    1. The standard method of reporting changes in opinion polls is to compare each poll with the most recent poll by the same firm, in this case Survation. That's what I've done. Tabloid newspapers, of course, just use whichever baseline figure they feel like using.

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    2. True. I wasn't saying you were wrong, just inquiring about the difference. Do you know what baseline figures they were using? The difference is pretty striking.

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  4. Must admit the steady state of independence polling puzzles me. I'd assumed some small natural wastage by now for the no vote. What other effects are at play?

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  5. I think natural turnover of voters is a minor but real effect (20k or 1% per annum). What ought to be much more significant is the obvious mess the UK has become since the brexit vote. Like you I'm surprised and disappointed by how little the polls have shifted.

    I put this down to extreme voter fatigue, especially in Scotland. People don't want to think about big constitutional questions because they have had it up to here with it all. If this right then timing matters (called it too before). It also means the polls will only shift when the campaign begins and folk have to engage again.

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  6. I think there are also likely to be a not insignificant number of people out there who think 'Brexit might not actually happen or change very much' and that the pronouncements of the likes of Philip Hammond give such people comfort in that view. As they don't want to think about things changing much, some people probably choose to ignore the pronouncements of others that things will change wholesale. This gives people reason to, as Ian suggests, avoid thinking about the big questions.

    The truth remains, as yet, that Brexit has not happened yet and we do not know for certain what form it will take (even if we have suspicions), so I don't think it's so shocking there's little movement. The whole UK is in 'wait and see' mode and I think that's what we should do about making any final conclusions about whether 'Brexit has had any effect on support for independence' as well. And I think the ultimate answer to this is going to come down to whether people become convinced the status quo is not possible, and that they have to make some sort of decision on which form of change they prefer.

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    1. I agree with what you say - especially that brexit remains a huge unknown - that's a key consideration.

      However suppose we end up with sort of (hard) brexit the tories are currently aiming for then I think this will tilt the balance in favour of a positive indy vote; as those currently sitting on the fence are forced to choose. I think there might have been a hint of this possibility in the those polls that took place very soon after the brexit vote. They had indy ahead. I think many in scotland were caught by surprise and what emerged in those june/july 2016 polls was well some folk effectively saying "if we must choose between eu and uk then it will be the eu". I think this hints at some "low hanging fruit" i.e. folk read to be persuaded to shift from no to yes this time round when brexit is clearer. Okay time for me to stop such wild optimism as I'll be predicting a scotland win in wales next up.

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  7. Interesting that on the basis of these figures, the SNP and the Greens between them would have 63 seats, short of a majority. It would only take a slight improvement in either, or both, parties' vote to take their combined total to over 65 seats but if the figures stay the same it raises again the question of whether we need to go for a 2nd indyref before the next Holyrood election.

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    1. Here in the land of the red, white and blue as have lots of Timulty folks...Is tumilty common over there ?

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  8. So there will be a SNP government but with a yoon majority. A terrible outcome if it happens!

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    1. Maybe not if the Tories and Red Tories did a deal.. probably less likely with Leonard in charge though.

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    2. Did you mean Tartan Tories?

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  9. The Jocko Nat sis need to explain to the punters where the hand outs will come from if we leave the Union. The EU trashed the Greeks when they came on hard times.

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    1. That's Fake News GWC2.
      The subsidy is from Scotland too England. You shouldn't believe everything you read in newspapers. GERS reports are published by the SG but are WM Treasury figures. Again not believable as they contain too many estimates and a lot of spending in England that is then attributed to Scotland, just because they can. An independent Scotland would be one of the wealthiest countries on Earth. The McCrone report was hidden by WM for this very reason.
      So unless you can justify your subsidy crap, "Away back tae the ludge and bile yer heid"

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  10. Kevin Pringle on Twitter today highlighted the improved stats on women voting remain and yes. If correct, this would be a remarkable shift from 2014. Any comments or caveats on this, James?

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    1. The Nat sis should go for a referendum yesterday. The fact is is you will lose and the longer you wait until after brexit and a possibility of a strong economy you will still lose. You Nat sis need to be blunt and honest to the Scottish people, do you want the EU or the Union. Do you want to lose the massive trade with RuK?

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    2. Are you suggesting WM will reimpose the Trade embargoes that sank the Darrien scheme and the Aliens Act that treated Scots as an infestation?

      Remember there is trade both ways and Scotland has lots of stuff that England NEEDS, food, electricity, water and a LOT of oil.
      What goods does England have that we NEED and cannot get from elsewhere?

      There is NO chance of the trade being stopped. It will be adjusted due to price alterations due to Brexit and Scotland being in the SM and CU and England being out of both, as is their want.

      So raise your game GWC2 and stop mouthing off crap that everyone knows to be just that.

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    3. You are the infestation on here fash bhoy. You Jocks will be begging to get bailed out. But that is your history.

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    4. So you have no evidence for your subsidy assertion. Just full of orange bile and puss.

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  11. It is amusing, I must admit, to watch the British nationalist become ever more frantic and froth at the mouth.

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    1. J R Tomlin, you are the Jock supremist English hating Nat si. I am a Jock Unionist. Ok I know you are disappointed that the Polish Italian bum bhoy Cherlie iz ma darlin run away at Culloden and has a statue in the Vatican in his honour but just take it on the chin old bhoy. You lost we won and up yer kilt.

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    2. Even more mouth-foaming manic than usual for you. Thanks for demonstrating my point.

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    3. The only point you nat sis have is the hatred of your English neighbour.

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    4. Really struggling now 'Grumpy Wastemonster Collaborator'. Resorting to your usual... if nothing else they have to hate the english! crap, crap and more crap.

      Grow up and provide rational argument for your point of view or go back to the ludge.

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    5. The ludge is open on the first Friday of each month Brother! Visitors welcome including Nat sis and former abused alter bhoys.

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  12. I once tracked the support for independence back as far as I could find data. I stuck it on a spreadsheet and used a best fit line equation to show any progress. From the 1960's onwards there was a slow positive slope for Yes. That slope showed a majority by 2017/18. Yet the poll shows approximately where it was in 2014. I still think my graph was okay. What i think is that a band of opinion exists. That 46% is the bottom edge with the top edge is above 50%. So all the negative propaganda is working to suppress support and 46% is the best it can achieve.

    We are not talking so much about a shift in political opinion, which can swing one way or the other. That is how the Labour and Conservative Party sees it and what they are working towards. They think like the UK two party system there will be a swing back to them if the media campaign is cranked 24/7. But as YES support increases at the speed of a continental drift the issue will become far more polarizing than the Offensive Behaviour Football Act pantomime.

    An active YES campaign could see regular polls of near or over 50% sending the UK government into a fit that in order to satisfy English desires for an appearance of putting the savages in their place could as always tip things the other direction and in favour of independence. It is not an unrealistic scenario.

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  13. This poll shows it's vital we develop an effective pro-independence voting on the list strategy in time for the next Holyrood elections if we are to secure a pro independence majority.

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    1. Oh God, is it that time of the year again? The only "pro-independence voting on the list strategy" that works is to vote on the list for your first-choice party.

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    2. The voter decides the issue. However if Independence means selling out Scotland to the EU fascists then you are on a loser. Now do try and discuss Real SCOTTISH independence.

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